In a dramatic turn in East-African diplomacy, Yoweri Museveni — President of Uganda — has publicly asserted that his land-locked country is “entitled” to access the Indian Ocean, warning that “in the future we are going to have wars” if that access remains obstructed.
His remarks were met with a measured yet firm response from the government of William Ruto in Kenya, which underlined the need for diplomacy, adherence to sovereignty and international law — while sidestepping any escalation.
Museveni’s Claim: “That Ocean Belongs to Me”
In a recent radio broadcast from Mbale, Uganda, President Museveni deployed a striking metaphor: Africa as a multi-storey apartment block, with coastal states on the ground floor monopolising the “compound” (the ocean), while land-locked states like Uganda are on higher floors complaining of exclusion:
“How can you say that you are on a block of flats, that the compound belongs only to the flats on the ground floor? … That compound belongs to the whole block.”
“That ocean belongs to me… I am entitled to it. In future, we are going to have wars.” Daily Express+1
He couched the issue in both economic and defence terms: without direct sea access, Uganda is “stuck” when it comes to exporting products or forming a navy.
Analysts view the statements as reflecting deep-seated frustration by Uganda over perceived bottlenecks in its logistics and trade corridors — and perhaps also calculus ahead of its 2026 presidential cycle.
Kenya’s Response: Calm Over Confrontation
Nairobi did not respond with reciprocated threats. Instead, the Kenyan government through Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’Oei reiterated Kenya’s commitment to cooperation and regional norms while emphasising its territorial integrity:
- “I will not comment much on what President Museveni said with respect to our oceans… but I believe very much that he does have a fairly great understanding… of our rights with respect to our natural resources.”
- Kenya reaffirmed that it operates under the framework of international law, and that its relationship with Uganda across trade, infrastructure and diplomacy remains intact.
The tone adopted points to a strategy of defusing rather than escalating — signalling that while Kenya takes the claim seriously, it rejects war-talk or unilateral threats.
Why This Matters: Trade, Sovereignty & Regional Integration
Economic stakes
Uganda’s export‐import chains rely heavily on Kenya’s maritime infrastructure (primarily the Port of Mombasa). Delays, high costs or perceived discrimination can aggravate Kampala’s frustration.
Sovereign and strategic dimension
Museveni’s linking of “navy formation” and “defence access” to the sea touches on deeper issues of state security and regional alignment. While primarily rhetorical, it does raise questions about how land-locked states navigate sovereignty in a regional environment.
Regional integration and EAC dynamics
Both countries are members of the East African Community (EAC). Cooperation on infrastructure—railways, pipelines, ports—has been promoted as key to deeper integration. Museveni’s statement may serve as a pressure point to accelerate commitments.
Risks and Road Ahead
- While the term “war” is alarming, Kenya’s response suggests the rhetoric remains symbolic rather than immediate. That said, persistent unresolved access issues could spiral into diplomatic or infrastructure standoffs.
- The matter could prompt fresh negotiations with clearly defined mechanisms for Uganda’s access rights, transit fees, or perhaps alternative corridor arrangements through neighbouring states like Tanzania.
- Domestic political calendars may influence the tone on both sides: in Uganda, Uganda’s election year may encourage bold rhetoric; in Kenya, the government must balance regional stability with domestic perceptions.
President Museveni’s blunt assertion that “that ocean belongs to me” may serve less as a literal roadmap to war than as a rhetorical gambit signalling impatience with protracted negotiations and structural disadvantage. Kenya’s measured response under President William Ruto underscores a preference for diplomacy over confrontation.
The episode invites deeper reflection: while the geography of East Africa may be fixed, the political, legal and infrastructural frameworks that distribute access and opportunity are still evolving. How Kenya, Uganda and the broader EAC navigate this will shape not just bilateral ties, but the region’s economic and strategic trajectory.
For now, the war-warnings remain in the realm of bold talk — but the sub-text is unmistakable: land-locked or coastal, the quest for access, equity and infrastructure in East Africa remains unfinished.
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